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Published on February 7, 2007 By adnauseam In Blogging
I read on Times Online today that Kodak is considering selling its film interests. That's after 100 years of making cameras and film. I guess they'll concentrate on digital more. I know their digital cameras are getting better and are proving quite competitive. Last week I read that PC Warehouse will stop selling floppy disks when stocks run out , and a few months ago I heard that Dixons (UK) would no longer stock VCR's. So, it is obvious that old technology must make way for the new. I began thinking about our present technology and what it will make way for. So I did some crystal ball gazing into the future (let's say in ten years time), and came up with the following speculative thoughts, and questions.

I foresee the CD, DVD, VCD and the disks and cartridge discs in camcorders, dictaphones etc. dying a quicker death than floppy disks, cassette tapes or LP records (remember them). They'll be replaced by chips---like those we have in our new satellite decoders.

What does the future hold for the mobile phone? Hasn't it just about reached its limit as far as technology is concerned?

I foresee satellite TV giving way to Internet fed TV. Internet TV is still in its infancy but it promises to get better. OR is there a bigger role ahead for satellite?

Will computing be possible with HD TV i.e. Will the entertainment and computing hub of the home lie within one single TV unit?

I am, as I said, just speculating, and I'm no techie. Would Joeusers like to gaze into their crystal balls and tell us what they think?




Comments
on Feb 07, 2007
I got a crack in my crystal ball.

As for your ideas, I think that CDs are almost dead (DVDs taking over), but they will be around for a while to come. But they are going to improve a lot both in quality and capacity. However, in the computer world, it will be "chips" that are used for data transfer (the sneaker net). As you can get a 2gb stick now for about $30, and larger capacity ones for not much more. I have almost stopped using CDs with my computer (at 25-30 cents each they are as cheap as disks) as I use the sticks and DVDs.
on Feb 07, 2007
My crystal ball for the mobile phone industry would be a routed transmission that uses a universal protocol between providers to provide a better signal. Much as you can now "view available wireless" on a wireless card, I see cell phones offering a "search for best signal" option. They will probably eventually charge higher rates for this technology, but that's pretty much standard.

I also see improvements in USB connectivity so that more phomes can be used as a modem to allow home PC's to access the Internet. I believe landline phones are bordering on obsolete, and that cell phones will become more useful for Internet access purposes as the landline phone phases out.

I also see linux based interfaces overtaking the cell phone industry because of the lower system requirements. As they become more standardized, home PC's will begin using them because of the compatibility issues. Within the next three years, I believe we will see a major computer manufacturer (I believe HP will be at the leading edge of this one) begin shipping new PC's with Linux distros and applications. As users become more familiar with the interface, I believe Linux will quickly overtake Mac and gain significant market share (although it is unlikely to overtake Microsoft for some time).

I see an increase in home networking, with servers becoming standard in the PC market. Tomorrow's home will probably have a very sophisticated network (another reason I believe Linux will increase in popularity), and computers on the network will be specialized, with home entertainment computers running the sound and video, word processing computers with low end procs and graphics specs to handle word processing, spreadsheet, and database apps, and security computers to handle home security. Gaming consoles will eventually become peripheral devices, fully integrated with the home PC system.

To address these new dynamics, IT pros will have to be more flexible, often offering onsite networking support for residential clients. It will be as common to see a network administrator drop by the house as it is to see a plumber or electrician. The upside of these home networks will be that telecommunications options will increase, and white collar workers will spend less than 20 hours at the office in face to face contact with their employer.

And, beyond that, I see a horsie and a doggie.